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Forecasting the four-party vote share of the 20th presidential election of Republic of Korea

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20th Presidential Election Forecast

Forecasting the four-party vote share of the 20th presidential election of the Republic of Korea

Overview

  • Execute the R files in each folder in the order of the folders' name: 1a_data_generate - 1b_summary - 2_fundamental_model - 3_poll_model

  • 1a_data_generate folder

    • save_RData.R executes all three R files in the same folder. By result, it generates pe.RData file that saves historical presidential election results and 20th presidential election pre-election polls.
  • 1b_summary folder

    • Use basic_plot.R to plot summary of the historical two-party vote share of the Democratic Party. This plot is included in our manuscript as figure 1.
  • 2_fundamental_model folder

    • Run run-fund-model.R to conduct posterior sampling using Rstan. Rstan codes are in fund-model-simple.stan file.

    • Use fund-model-plot.R to make summary plots from the posterior samples.

  • 3_poll_model folder

    • Run run-poll-model.R to conduct posterior sampling using Rstan. Rstan codes are in poll-model.stan file.

    • Use poll-model-plot.R to make summary plots from the posterior samples.

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Forecasting the four-party vote share of the 20th presidential election of Republic of Korea

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