Thank you for taking an interest in my MCMC alogrithm for supernovae identification. This algorithm was produced in 2021 as part of an honours project through the University of Cape Town by Zane Lentz and supervised by Dr. Jack Radcliffe. In this paper we presented a supernovae model which makes use of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo data fitting methods to fit a light curve to possible radio supernovae sources. The algorithm produced here is applied to a known supernova source, SN 2004dj, which was used as a proof of concept.
The abstract of the paper produced can be found here:
Abstract In this paper we present a supernovae model which makes use of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo data fitting methods to fit a light curve to possible radio supernovae sources. This method is applied, in a newly developed algorithm designed for this paper, to both a known supernova source (SN 2004dj) as a proof of concept as well as a possible supernova source (J123742.33+621518.27). The Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method is used along with the standard mini-shell radio emission model from Chevalier (1998), in which the radio emission is considered as purely synchrotron emission. This model is assumed to follow the free-free absorption model as proposed by Weiler et al. (2002) which assumes a proportionality between the magnetic field energy density and the energy density of relativistic electrons with the post-shock density. Using this model we are able to analyse the variable source J123742.33+621518.27 found in Radcliffe et al. (2019) during a blind study of variable sources in the GOODS-N field. This source was the only source found in Radcliffe et al. (2019) which did not present with AGN signatures, which led us to believe J123742.33+621518.27 to be a supernova source. By fitting J123742.33+621518.27 to our supernovae model we found that the parameters of J123742.33+621518.27 appear to match up with those accepted for a supernova sources as per Weiler et al. (2002), although the errors produced by our model are too large to conclusively state the origins of J123742.33+621518.27. Further analyses of J123742.33+621518.27 led us to find that the mass loss rate of J123742.33+621518.27 is 7.64 × 10 −4 M yr −1 , which is consistent to values found for mass loss rates of Type II supernovae based on Weiler et al. (2002). Thus our results produced in this paper seem to confirm our hypothesis, but due to high error values we cannot yet definitely assume the origins of J123742.33+621518.27.
For the full paper please contact me at: zane19.zl@gmail.com